By Mohd Ismail Khan and Shaik Zakeer Hussain, TwoCircles.net,
Bengaluru: We are just hours away from the results of Karnataka assembly elections; this is the state election which whole nation is curiously watching on the fate of the first BJP government in south India. The Congress reemergence even after corruption scandals at center is in question which made it worth observing for.
But Muslims around India have other special interest in these elections, this Karnataka election results could very well affect Muslim politics around the nation. All Indian Muslims’ eyes are stuck on the performance of emerging Muslim political parties like Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and Welfare Party of India (WPI).
TwoCircles.net spoke to Syed Tanveer Ahmed, who is the chief editor of weekly news magazine, cum news-portal ‘KarnatakaMuslims’, and executive member of Karnataka Muslim Mutahida Mahaz. A sharp political analyst Tanveer Ahmed told TCN on what kind of changes is expected in the Karnataka politics in general and Muslim politics in particular in the results.
Three possibilities in results outcome:
Tanveer Ahmed, conceding with the polls of all the major news channels, too believes that Congress party has an edge in Karnataka due to anti-incumbency factor. But he also added that the Congress lost the major portion of that anti-incumbency factor to exploit and reaching out to the electorates, thus some changes in the electoral behavior of the people took place just weeks before the elections.
Tanveer said that keeping the recent developments in mind, it will be hard for Congress to win a landslide, but it may cross the half way mark after some struggle, and could end up winning 110-115 seats.
The other possibility, Tanveer believes is, that if BJP and JD(s) gets successful in consolidating their traditional caste base vote banks, they could very well end up winning major portion of seats, thus with independent support it could lead to a coalition Government of both the parties.
Another possibility is, Karnataka might well go with hung assembly, where all the four major parties wouldn’t be able to get through the half way mark.
Watch out for SDPI in four constituencies:
Syed Tanveer Ahmed said that Muslims in Karnataka is basically inclined towards Congress, but SDPI has come up as a major factor. He said that SDPI could play critical role in four constituencies, Narsimharaga (Mysore), Chamrajpet (Bangalore), Mangalore, and Bijapur, excluding the last one all the three has sitting Muslim MLAs.
SDPI has generally succeeded in gathering huge crowd. But will that convert into victory?
WPI still in infancy Karnataka:
Tanveer observes that WPI is in its infant stage in Karnataka and no large expectations should be tied to it. WPI, according to him, needs more ground work in the state. But he said WPI might play some role in Gulbarga and can damage some votes of sitting Muslim MLA Qamar-ul-Islam.
Presently there are 9 sitting Muslim MLAs in Karnataka assembly, 8 from Congress and one from JDS. Speaking in a journalistic point of view, Tanveer said that SDPI performance will directly affect the Muslim candidates of Congress. If SDPI performs well it will cut a major portion of votes of Muslim candidates, thus it will benefit candidates from other communities or even indirectly benefit BJP.
Vote divide should be seen in two perspectives:
Syed Tanveer Ahmed said that SDPI has its own justification in fighting against Muslim candidates, or even playing a role in their loss. Tanveer believes that to empower Muslims, the political leadership has to be honest, that is why it will feel no remorse in playing a role in the defeat of Muslim candidates of major political parties. Thus he argues that the SDPI didn’t play a very positive role in developing the community.
Tanveer also added that SDPI stood by their idea of propagating honest leadership and didn’t field candidate from Kollar from where Congress candidate Nazeer Ahmed is contesting, which according to local Muslims are vocal on community issues.
Apart from eradicating corrupt leadership of the community, Tanveer said in another perspective that Muslims will be the biggest loser in the vote divide as their representation in the Legislative Assembly will certainly come down, and moreover it will give BJP an advantage in some constituencies.
KMMM charter of demands and will Congress acknowledge them after coming to power?
Karnataka Muslim Mutahida Mahaz on the cost of Muslim political parties announced support in almost all the constituencies to Congress after its charter of demands were accepted by the party. Those demands included almost everything what is needed for the upliftment of community from political reservation to the education, but will Congress remember those demands after the election results.
Tanveer Ahmed, executive member of the KMMM, said that manifesto or promises of the political parties are for the namesake and just a token of formality before elections, the oppressed community has to be politically mature and learned to be able to grab what they deserve and to pressurize the government in keeping up their promises. But sadly he observes that Karnataka Muslims lack in both, so in the end of the elections the community in Karnataka will have to depend on the ever political will of Congress for the implementation of its electoral promises to Muslims.
Related:
Karnataka 2013