High birth rate not immigration main reason for high growth in minority districts of Assam

By Shahnoor Rahman for TwoCircles.net,

According to the Census report of 2011, the decadal population growth rate in nine districts of Assam is over 20 per cent, most of which are minority(Muslim) dominated and lies in proximity to India-Bangladesh border. It has been hence alleged that high growth rate of these districts signify the bulk influx of illegal Bangladeshis.

However, if we analyse the census data carefully, we will find that it is high birth rate which is responsible for this as growth rate of 0-6 years population of these districts are more than 5%, with growth rate of these 0-6 years population in Dhubri is 9.82% whereas 0-6 years population growth in Assam on average is only 0.29%.

We can understand the issue easily when we consider that an illiterate girl of Dhubri gets married at 16 years and by 30 years, she is mother of 5-7 children due to the fact that she is not aware of family planning methods or its advantages. There are also socio-religious compulsions, as they see it. Contrast this with say a girl from Dibrugarh, who gets married at an average age of 23 years, become mother of 1-2 children by her age of 30 years due to acceptance of family planning.

If we generalise the data we will find that in a decade, growth rate of 0-6 years population is much higher in Dhubri compared to Dibrugarh. So, this allegation that illegal Bangladeshis leads to higher growth rate in these districts is not correct.

No one cane deny presence of illegal Bangladeshi migrants in Assam, but how can they be included in census as officials verify their identity before entering their names in census records? All countries suffer from illegal migration, and that needs to be adrressed.

In six of the districts, the growth rate has shown a jump since 2001. Significantly, at 16.93 per cent as Assam's decadal population growth rate is less than the national average of 17.6 per cent.

The most disputed district has been Dhubri which borders Bangladesh. At 24.40 per cent, the decadal growth rate in this district is the highest in the state. Interestingly, the decadal growth rate of children in the age group of 0-6 in Dhubri is 9.82 per cent while the state average is 0.29 per cent. In fact, the percentage of child population in all the districts with 20 per cent growth rate has gone down since 2001.

According to repprts, 13 districts have shown negative rate in the population growth of 0-6 age group and in four districts it's less than 3 %. At 22.34 % Hailakandi shows the highest growth in this category. On the other hand, Kokrajhar, the district bordering Dhubri and dominated by Bodo tribes has shown the lowest population growth at 5.19 %, perhaps due to migration of minority people to dhubri due to fear of roits.

Between 2001 and 2011, Dhubri registered the highest growth rate (11per cent) in literacy from 48 per cent in 2001 to 59 per cent in 2011. Due to success of Assam sarva shiksha abhiyan in these areas in increasing literacy rate of children not the adults, so, its effect on population growth has not fallen yet.

Literacy rates in other districts which have shown 20 per cent population growth rate has also grown at over 4 per cent due to success of Assam sarv shiksha abhiyan in increasing literacy in children but adult population remains unaffected in imparting decrease in growth rate. Four of these districts have registered literacy rates above the state average of 73.18 per cent.

Though the state's overall literacy rate jumped from 63.25 per cent in 2001 to 73.18 per cent in 2011, five districts have shown negative literacy growth rate, including Jorhat, the second highest literate district in Assam.

From these facts and figures, we are clear that those districts which have been most literate districts of Assam since early decades, have shown decreased growth rate; although literacy rate in this decade might have registered decrease due to higher adult literacy and awareness to family planning methods which happens to be majority dominated districts. So,illiteracy, unawareness and non-acceptance of family planning methods are main factor for high growth rate.

Conclusion:

No districts of Assam has growth rate more than 25% although Assam is accused to have registered unnatural growth rate due to bulk influx of illegal Bangladeshis. 250 Districts of India have decadal growth rate of more than 25% and more than 100 districts of India have growth rate more than 25% which lies within India and are not bordering to International Border. Five districts of India Which have registered highest growth in the country are as follows according to census of India 2011.

It is worth mentioning here that population growth of an area at certain period of time = Birth rate- Death rate + Immigration – Immigration . In Assam if we do analysis than we find that adult population growth rate of all districts of Assam are more or less same but it is the growth rate of 0 – 6 years population of few districts of Assam which happens to be minority concentrated districts like Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Hailakandhi, Nagaon, etc. have 0 to 6 years population growth rate more than 5% with highest in Dhubri with 9.82%.

Average growth rate of 0 to 6 years population of Assam on average is only 0.29% with negative growth in 13 districts of Assam which happens to be majority concentrate districts and literacy rate and awareness/acceptance to family planning methods are much higher than poor socio economic conditions of minority concentrated districts with higher illiteracy rate and unawareness/non acceptance of family planning methods).

If we add these percentages with average growth percentage of Assam state (16.96%), then we find that growth rate of these districts goes from 20% to 24.4% so growth rates of all districts of Assam are not unnatural and thus it does not give any hint to illegal migration from Bangladesh.

Also it worthy to mention here that forty nine minority concentrated districts of India has registered growth rate of more than 30% speaks that Muslims are either unaware or do not accept family planning methods and have poor socio economic conditions.

Thus if government wants any kind of population control mechanism in these minority dominated dsitricts, it is high time that the government shun bias and focus on poverty allevation, 100% literacy and employment generation.